Session report for Red Dragon Rising

Warning long session report:

Session report for Red Dragon Rising, the coming war with China

Thought some you might be interested in how the recent Taiwan incident looked overseas to those without a dog in the fight.

Here are some clippings from the Gambrone (Botwana) Times World News in Brief column from July.

June 30

TOKYO -- Explosions were reported at multiple sites in Taipei, Taiwan shortly after midnight, local time, according to radio reports monitored here. Taiwanese bloggers in several cities also reported explosions and what appeared to be large numbers of missiles streaking across the sky from the west before all Internet traffic to Taiwan was blocked by what appeared to be massive denial of service attacks. All telephone and satellite telecommunications also appeared to be out f service overnight. There was no official confirmation from the Chinese government. A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that initial indications were that a “large number, thousands” of missiles were fired from China In a coordinated barrage at Taiwan starting about midnight, local time.

July 1

TOKYO -- All telephone and Internet communications to Taiwan were still out of service today, but reports from ham radio operators in Taiwan report widespread destruction of critical sites, a complete collapse of electrical power and a news blackout. There appeared to be a lull in Chinese missile attacks. One ham radio operator reported that a Taiwanese fishing vessel had transmitted a brief report of large naval force at sea in the Taiwan strait before being cut off. The Japanese government had co comment about reports that elements of the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force had sailed from their bases along with U.S. Navy forces.

WASHINGTON -- In an address to the nation, the U.S. president promised to come to the aid of Taiwan, saying that using force was not the way to reunite the Chinese people. The president also revealed the existence of a Top Secret space-based kinetic energy weapon known as the Remote Orbital Delivery of ROD, which had its first combat use overnight when it destroyed the Chinese light carrier Beijing in Taiwan strait. The president demanded that large Chine fleet at sea return to base and an immediate cease-fire be implemented. There was no comment from official Chinese sources which have been unavailable since the crisis erupted.

July 2

TAIPEI -- The Taiwanese government was able to get a radio station back on the air for a few hours just as waves of Chinese warplanes appeared over the island. Official sources would only say that the Taiwanese military forces were fighting valiantly, but admitted to “heavy” losses among all branches of the service. A ham radio operator reported a downed Chinese SU-30 on a beach along the island’s western coast, but also reported seeing what appeared to be fiercely blazing ships offshore. It was unclear what the nationality of the ships were, but there were no reports that Chinsese ships have been sighted near Taiwan as yet.

WASHINGTON -- Pentagon sources said that a massive naval battle, the largest naval battle since Leyte Gulf,” was underway in the Taiwan strait this afternoon. Details were sketchy, but the Pentagon sources indicated that Chinese naval losses were “extremely” heavy, and while there had been some losses among Japanese and U.S. naval forces, they were relatively light.

July 3

WASHINGTON -- The massive air and sea battle of the Taiwan strait continued for a second day as Chinese aircraft reportedly joined the fray. US sources said that Chinese losses continued to be heavy, but admitted that Chinese attacks had managed to get through and damage two American carriers, although officials declined to identify which ships pending notification of families. They said that the damaged vessels were withdrawing from the battle zone under heavy escort, having “accomplishing their mission.“ Officials off the record also confirmed that several US. Submarines were missing and presumed sunk, as well as an unknown number of Japanese naval vessels.

July 4

LONDON -- The British Ministry of Defense announced that a naval task force has joined U.S. Naval forces at Guam and will take part in future operations. No other details were released.

TOKYO -- Japanese government sources said air strikes were continuing over Taiwan today, but with much reduced intensity from the first days of the war. Japanese sources said Taiwanese air defenses seemed to have recovered somewhat from the opening shock of the war and were reportedly having some success downing Chinese aircraft. Meanwhile more details were coming out about the massive air-naval battle of the Taiwan Strait. Allied sources reported that the Chinese invasion fleet was “smashed” and the counterattacking Chinese air forces “decimated” in the 2-day battle. Dozens of ships, hundreds of landing craft and several hundred fighters were lost. Sources said the loss of life among Chinese troops aboard the landing fleet must have been horrendous and it may have been the deadliest naval battle in history. The Japanese reportedly lost several destroyers and the USS Reagan and USS Bush were damaged, as well as several nuclear attack submarines lost and presumed sunk.

July 5

CANBERRA -- In a surprise development, the Australian government announced that it would be neutral in the ongoing conflict in the western Pacific. An Australian government spokesman said that the government had determined that it could be most useful to the cause of peace by playing an “honest broker” between the two sides.

OKINAWA -- U.S. Pacific Command reported that a massive Chinese long-range bomber strike on the retiring damaged US carriers Reagan and Bush was intercepted by Air Force and Navy carrier aircraft and Okinawa-based fighters today, resulting in dozens of Chinese aircraft being destroyed, although not before many launched missiles at the U.S. task force. While the carriers were not hit, losses were very heavy among the screening forces, the US. admitted.

July 6

TEL AVIV -- Israeli air strikes pounded the Palestinian city of Jenin today in retaliation for rocket attacks that killed 17 Israelis this morning. An Israeli armored column punched through a gap in the border wall to rescue Israeli settlers besieged in several settlements inside the former West Bank.

TOKYO -- Japanese Ministry of Defense source reported that Chinese ground troops have been spotted moving into North Korea. Meanwhile the damaged US carriers Reagan and Bush sailed into Tokyo Bay escorted by Japanese warships.

CARACAS -- President Hugo Chavez announced the “full mobilization” of Venezuela’s armed forces in solidarity with China, while Cuba announced that its forces would go on heightened alert in anticipation of the expected US response. The administration downplayed the significance of the Caribbean , but announced that two brigade combat teams and the USS Roosevelt would move to the Gulf Coast as a “precaution.” The administration spokesman insisted these moves would not impact the war effort in the Pacific.

July 7

HANOI -- The Vietnamese government denounced the Chinese occupation of the disputed Spratley Islands today. Vietnam’s defense ministry said a “substantial Chinese fleet that had sailed from the Hainan area a few days ago had landed troops on the islands. The mystery of Chinese intentions was deepened by the move. A week into the war there has still been absolutely no Chinese comment about the fighting, even off the record. Some analysts suggested the Chinese move on the Spratley’s might be a face-saving move to make up for the failure of the Taiwan invasion. Meanwhile, Navy sources in Washington said that the last of China’s submarines forces in the Taiwan strait had been hunted down and eliminated. The entirety of China’s remaining naval strength was committed to the Spratley expedition, these sources said and the danger of an amphibious landing in Taiwan was past. (+4 China VP)


July 8

TAIPEI -- After a lull of a few days Chinese air strikes resumed over Taiwan today. There were reports of damage at several sites, but ham radio operators also reported witnessing several shoot downs of Chinese aircraft. Administration officials announced that additional naval and land forces have been dispatched to the Pacific, including the USS Nimitz.

July 9

TAIPEI -- In the latest twist in the bizarre Asian war, Chinese troops alighted on the island using a variety of transports, including helicopters, gliders and crash-landed civil aircraft. The assault troops attempted to seize several airports but suffered heavy losses in the attempt. US air strikes and cruise missile attacks in support of the Chinese troops caused additional losses and by nightfall there was just a single brigade’s-worth of Chinese troops ensconced around one airfield in Taiwan. Taiwanese officials said the situation was “serious” but not out of control.

July 10

SINGAPORE -- Alarm broke out in Singapore as the Chinese fleet made an unexpected appearance off the coast of Malaysia. Singaporean officials attempting to contact the Chinese embassy found the gates locked and embassy officials out of sight. Meanwhile, in heavy fighting, Taiwanese troops mopped up the last of the Chinese air assault forces.

July 11

SINGAPORE -- Chinese marines landed on Malaysian soil a few miles outside the borders of Singapore., supported by several destroyers. There was no armed opposition, although Malaysian officials lodged a protest at the United Nations. In San Diego additional US naval forces left for the war zone. (+1 China VP, total +5)


July 12

TOKYO -- Japanese Defense Ministry officials reported that China has redeployed most of its surviving air strength to North Korea. Japanese shipyard crews have also finished emergency repairs on the aircraft carrier USS Reagan. Work continues on the USS Bush, but officials would not speculate on how long it might take to get the Bush ready to return to combat.

July 13

SEOUL -- Missiles, artillery shells and special forces commandoes rained on South Korean border areas and the capital city before dawn as the widely expected Second Korean War started. As most civilians had been evacuated south of the artillery zone over the past few weeks casualties were low. There were no reports of significant incursions in the early hours of the war. The Chinese delegation vetoed a UN resolution calling for a cease-fire throughout the theater without comment. The US announced an airlift of a light infantry brigade combat team from Hawaii to South Korea. The Chinese-owned corporation that operates the Panama Canal announced that the canal is closed for the duration of hostilities, disabling the locks. (+1 China VP, total +6)


July 14

TOKYO -- The South Korean government announced an immediate cease-fire and treaty of eternal friendship with China today. U.S. troops disembarking from their transports were interned and incoming flights were diverted to Japanese airfields. South Korean officials speaking on condition of anonymity due to the extremely sensitive nature of the information said Chinese officials had sent word that they would use a barrage of nuclear weapons against South Korea’s cities unless the country capitulated immediately. Officials indicated the Chinese gave the South Korean government les than 12 hours to decide. The USS Bush was ready for sea, the Japanese government said. (+4 China VP , total 10)

July 15

TOKYO -- Taiwan surrenders! Citing credible threats of “intensive “ nuclear strikes across the island from Chinese officials, Taiwan’s president announced that his country was reverting to its proper provincial status and all national government offices except for vital public services were to stand-down until further notice. Stunned US officials insisted that the Chinese nuclear bullying would not stand and was “mot the last word.” Additional US forces including an Army Stryker Brigade and a Combined Arms Brigade, as well as more surface ships and submarines were on their way to the theater, officials said. (+6 China VP, total 16! China wins! In error play continued)

July 16

TOKYO -- Air battles were reported over Taiwan as Chinese fighters flew into the captured country’s airfields. Dozens of aircraft were reported downed, many as they were on their final approaches to the airfields. Meanwhile, saying that the Chinese aggression was unacceptable, the government of the Philippines said it was joining the US anti-Chinese coalition.

July 17

TOKYO -- U.S. Naval officials announced that the USS Enterprise, the last carrier still in Chinese waters was badly damaged by a Chinese suicide plane attack from Taiwan’s airfields. More than 100 Chinese aircraft were shot down during the mass attack, but one plane managed to crash into the bridge area of the carriers, causing extensive damage and forcing the US task force to retire.. No other ships were damaged, the Navy spokesman said, and loss of life aboard the Enterprise was relatively low, although the ship’s captain and the admiral leading the task force were both killed, along with several other key officers.

July 18

HANOI -- Vietnamese officials report that the Chinese naval forces formerly off the Malayan coast have disappeared, apparently heading back Towards China. Eyewitnesses report the USS Enterprise task force entered Tokyo Bay and the damaged carriers was immediately swarmed with workers, even before the ship docked.


July 19

MOSCOW -- President Vladimir Putin announce that Russia will “under no circumstances” get involved in the far eastern war. “This is a local affair and must be resolved by the concerned powers,” Putin said.

TOKYO -- Japanese officials said North Korean aircraft have been seen flying into Taiwanese airfields. Intelligence sources suggest that the planes are crewed by Chinese pilots, but air losses have been so severe that China has had to “borrow” first-line aircraft from their North Korean allies. In a feat of naval engineering reminiscent of the work on the USS Yorktown before the World war II Battle of Midway, the USS Enterprise was ready for sea within 24 hours of arriving at Tokyo.

July 20

TOKYO -- Vietnamese sources report that most Chinese troops have let the Spratly Islands, leaving just a skeleton garrison., and apparently rejoined the Chinese at-sea forces. Meanwhile the USS Enterprise, USS Reagan and USS Bush sailed out from Tokyo Bay under escort from US and Japanese warships. All three ships were fully combat capable, the U.S. Navy said although workmen were still aboard all three ships.

July 21

TOKYO -- Saying that Japan had already done “more than its share,” the Japanese government announced that Japan was withdrawing from active combat operations effective immediately and that all US combat forces based in Okinawa would have to depart within 24 hours or be interned. Support and administrative forces and dependents were given a week to depart. US officials said they “regretted” the Japanese action, and said Japanese workers aboard the three carriers would be sent home “soon.”

SINGAPORE -- Malaysian sources said all Chinese troops except for some support cadres have re-embarked on their transports and left for “parts unknown.’

July 22

BAGHDAD -- Iranian troops seize the Al Faw peninsula today, cutting off Iraq from the sea and brushing aside the small Iraqi forces in the way. The US administration announced that three fighter wings would be dispatched to Iraq to provide air support for Iraqi forces and help them drive the Iraqi forces out.

LONDON -- The ministry of Defense issued a brief statement that Royal Navy forces had rendezvoused with U.S. naval forces “at sea.” The spokesman would provide no details as to where and for what purpose the fleets had joined.

July 23

SINGPORE -- The rogue Chinese fleet has reappeared, Singaporean officials said, this time off the coast of Borneo. Officials said it appeared Chinese forces were going to take advantage of Indonesia’s weak military to grab coastal territory that might be useful as a bargaining chip. To this date the Chinese government ahs not said a word about its war aims or even commented officially on any aspect of the fighting. The entire country is on an Internet blackout and state media has played nothing but martial music and shown patriotic films for more than three weeks.

MANILLA - A Philippine fishing boat reports seeing a vast armada approaching the coast of Taiwan today.

July 24

JAKARTA -- Indonesian officials said Chinese marines have splashed ashore on a remote section of the Borneo coast in an obvious attempt to insult the US president by occupying a portion of his childhood home. (+1 China VP, total +17)

WASHINGTON -- The administration said the Chinese aggression was ‘pointless” and resulting in unnecessary suffering all over the Pacific. Navy spokespeople said carrier aircraft from the Bush, Enterprise, Nimitz and Reagan had conducted air strikes to achieve air supremacy over Taiwan. Chinese/North Korean aircraft rising to contest the US strike were “brushed away.”





July 25

JAKARTA -- Indonesian officials said Chinese marines have re-embarked on their ships, leaving behind a detachment of troops.

TAIPEI -- US Marines splashed ashore on the beaches outside the capital city while US Army troops landed elsewhere on the island. Few Chinese troops were seen and there was no serious fighting reported. US officials said a new, independent Taiwanese government would be formed. (-6 China VP, total +11)

July 26

HANOI --- The Vietnamese government, denouncing Chinese “aggression,: said it was joining the US coalition. Observers noted the irony of the Vietnamese joining their erstwhile foes from the Vietnam era.

MANILA -- Philippine military officials said Chinese naval forces have been spotted off the shore of Palawan Island. They said that the US naval armada that liberated Taiwan was now on its way to rescue the Palawan islanders.

July 27

MANILA -- As expected, some Chinese troops have gone ashore and planted their flags, in what has now become a bizarre ritual. Meanwhile the US armada was reported to be approaching Palawan from the north and just hours away. (+1 China VP, total +12, China wins again! Game still continues in error)

July 28

MANILA -- Like ghosts, the Chinese fleet has disappeared, just as the US armada appears offshore of Palawan island. The hasty departure of the Chinese fleet left one brigade of Chinese troops on the beach, however.

July 29

MANILA -- In a day of sharp fighting that culminated in a mass suicide charge by explosive-vest wearing Chinese soldiers that caused heavy casualties among attacking US Marines Palawan was liberated.

JAKARTA -- Chinese marines landed at a remote village on the island of Celebes , today, in another move the Indonesian military was helpless to prevent. (-1 China VP, + 1 China VP. Total still +12)

July 30

WASHINGTON -- U.S. officials announced the loss of the USS Reagan today to a Chinese suicide submarine attack. A Chinese stay-behind special forces submarine armed with a directed energy warhead managed to explode directly underneath the super carrier, breaking its back and resulting in its total loss. Fortunately the ship sank slowly and most of the crew was rescued by accompanying vessels. In related news, administration officials announced that B-2 bombers armed with satellite-guided weapons had struck the Chinese fleet off the Celebes, sinking several warships. All US bombers returned safely, officials announced. (+2 China VP total +14)

July 31.

NEW YORK -- In a surprise development, Chinese officials announced they were accepting the UN cease-fire and were prepared to open wide-ranging negotiations on all “outstanding issues in the region.” Observers at the UN suggested that the Chinese had salvaged in the end some bargaining chips after a disastrous start to the war.

Final VP

China

4 VP for Korea
4 VP for the Spratley Islands
3 VP for Malaya, Celebes and Borneo
2 VP for one sunk CVN
1 VP for Panama Canal closure

Total of 14 VP = Chinese victory!


Long session report. Misread victory conditions and thought China won on points at game end, not at the end of any turm, so the game continued . The "real" end came quickly. The US probably should have reinforced Korea, but the Chinese rolled a 6 for resolving the Korean war This created a dangerous situation for the US that really couldn’t be helped. Despite completely destroying the Chinese invasion force they Taiwan still surrendered and gave China the points it needed. The end game played in error still showed that the Chinese have some dangerous capabilities even when reduced. The US should ruthlessly hunt down any Chinese expeditions that get loose around Indonesia.

Red Dragon Rising musings

This game seems to have legs, especially for a magazine game. There will be a major 70+ counter variant in S&T 258, reportedly.

It's also seeming quite topical these days. Note this recent article: http://uk.reuters.com/article/usPoliticsNews/idUKTRE54363X20090504?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

It's no surprise that China would gear their naval buildup towards countering our Navy. And Adm. Mullen seems to be doing his best to tamp down the hype in the article.

If Japan and Taiwan were not strong US allies then China might be expected to gear its (deliciously named) People's Liberation Army Navy to dealing with those two local and regional powers. But it's hard to imagine any scenario involving conflict with either that would not instantly involve the USN, so the PLAN is obligated to deal with the threat as matter of basic military prudence.

That said, I don't think a conflict is inevitable. In the short and medium term the main cause for concern would be some sudden flareup over Taiwan. This is always a possibility because of the political and emotional stakes involved, which can be volatile. On the other hand, time may very well solve this problem.

There is, however, a long-term threat caused by grand strategic factors. Simply stated, the USA is the Top Dog in the world power structure. China is a former Top Dog that believes it is long overdue to return to Top Dog stature and it has the booming economy to support that. It's busy building up some military capability to back that up, but military hardware is just a small part of China's ambitions as it improves domestic infrastructure, reforms domestic affairs and invests in science and technology. This is a multi-generational affair that will play out over the rest of the 21st Century. It may result in some major war or wars just as the rivalry between the British Empire and Germany did in the first half of the 2oth Century. Or it may be resolved relatively peacefully like the Cold War. Can't say yet.

There may be "interesting times"" ahead.

*Interesting in the sense implied by the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times."

This is an interesting development

It would be interesting to account for this capability in Red Dragon Rising.

https://www.usni.org/forthemedia/ChineseKillWeapon.asp

Red Dragon Rising -- breaking from the pack

Magazine wargames are rarely well-regarded compared to their stand-alone peers.

Sometimes this is because they're simply on very obscure topics, although being on obscure topics hasn't hurt standalone games such as Hammer of the Scots, More often the quality is suspect -- compared to standalone products magazine wargames are necessarily much less play tested.

Only a handful of magazine wargames are among the top few hundred rankings on Boardgame Geek, for example -- and the long-time champ among Strategy & Tactics offerings has been Battle For Germany which was published decades ago.

So it's notable that Battle for Germany has been dethroned as the top-ranked magazine wargame by Red Dragon Rising, a game depicting a potential war between the United States and China.

The subject is certainly topical, given the ever-greater heft of China on the world stage, but that seems unlikely to explain RDR's relative popularity. No, the credit seems to lie with its using a variant of the popular War at Sea/Victory in the Pacific game system.

This is borne out with the number of playings RDR has. While not exceptional by BGG standards, the game does have 67 plays logged already, which is far above the typical for magazine wargames. These, if they get played at all, are likely see see numbers such as the ones racked up by recent titles like Barbarossa (10), Cobra (7), First Blood (19), Sea Lords (4) or Civil War in the West (1).

Whether the game represents a serious study of a potential war scenario is hard to say. There are innumerable variables which make this sort of wargame difficult to evaluate anyway, and one could argue that a high degree of abstraction makes as much sense as getting down into detailed weeds that may not be valid anyway.

But there's a lot to be said for using a fun game system like WAS/VITP is you want your what-if game to actually be played. On that ground it appears that RDR may be the most successful magazine wargame to be published in years.